UK Gas and solar situation January 2025

[Charles Young]

Yesterday the GB power market came within 580 MW of demand control or a blackout on what was the tightest day since 2011 or before@neso_energy issued its first Electricity Market Notice of the winter and third (quickly cancelled) Capacity Market Notice. Although the EMN was eventually cancelled, forecasting errors meant the out-turn spare margin was just 580 MW!

This is much lower than the single largest infeed loss which is supposed to be protected. Even a relatively modest generating unit tripping at the peak would have triggered a shortfall and potential blackout.

Certainly at that point NESO would have to look at demand control to avoid a country-wide blackout. From NESO’s official pronouncements you’d never guess how close things got but the data are all there on BMRS. Oh, and it cost over £21 million to balance the system – almost 10x the usual daily cost. BM prices maxed out at £5,500 /MWh and cashout prices were £2,900 /MWh at times.

This blows the Winter Outlook out of the water – peak demand was much higher and the spare margin and interconnector availability were both lower than forecast. In fact, if Viking had not return its offline bipole early (700 MW) it would not have been possible to meet demand.

[Charles Parker]

Seems like very boom or bust pricing. Wind high – super cheap Wind low – middle of the road Wind dead and cold temps pushing has demand – crazyRenewables are the way but they need to be balanced in the medium term until we can provide sufficient storage.

We should be pushing for a nuclear and wind/solar system in the medium term. Yes I know nuclear has it’s pitfalls and there’s the waste too but we can mitigate that before a better more sustainable future.

I mean….we’re still burning gas like it’s going out of fashion and surely that’s worse?

[Edward Johnson]

It’s not a problem with renewables.

Every year they are both cheaper and more efficient and provide more energy as a percentage. They’re the cheapest energy source, especially solar. But the govt decided that instead of continuing to invest in renewable energy tarrifs that it would instead invest in their financial sponsors in the oil and gas industry and give them subsidies instead. These are the most expensive sources of energy.

The Russian Ukraine conflict gave them a perfect excuse to raise prices, saying that there was less oil available but much more of the energy comes from gas, which is much cheaper than oil and is mainly sourced in the UK. The energy prices increased their prices because they wanted to, not because they didn’t have enough energy.

The government didn’t stop the energy companies from doing this, but instead paid the difference out of tax money which isn’t there, so essentially just increasing national debt. Meanwhile the energy companies have more than enough energy for the country, and their supply is actually increasing, although with decreased renewable energy subsidies, private investments have decreased, at least in the UK, and have increased elsewhere like in China.

The energy companies have made record profits, just like the oil companies make record profits everytime they say there is a fuel shortage, but they never run out of fuel to sell, the prices just goes up and their profits go up, then they donate to the politicians who helped them get record profits to get or stay in power, millions in donations is nothing when you make so many billions.

Meanwhile some countries with much more renewable energy have very cheap energy, sometimes even paying users to use electric because there is a surplus, and selling the surplus to nearby countries. Well the UK is also planning to export electricity to Europe, especially from its offshore wind farms, they can’t do that with an energy shortage, luckily there is no energy shortage.

[Eddie Cooper]

Rye House houses open cycle gas turbines (inefficient and higher carbon intensity hence last to be called onto the grid) commissioned in 1965 long before renewables were on the grid.

Such plants command high prices owing to be dormant for most of the year.

Nothing to do with wind or sun, but peaking plant using batteries is far cheaper, as the Australians have shown.

• This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by  Eddie Cooper.

[Edward Jackson]

Lots of solar powering my house today might make over 10kw which is what usually use every day and 13.5 kw of cheap overnight electric still there in my battery for later if I need any extra.

The golden goddess is amazing today and it’s -5 in York !

[George Anderson]

More incentives to install both home and business solar/battery systems is what we need. If enough people had batteries, they could stagger cheap rate for people and just worry about businesses spiking usage.

They could also pay us more for the savings sessions as 70p per kWh while okay, is a drop in the ocean compared to the power plants.

I exported about 4kWh but could have put out more than twice than in the hour. Not worth it though.

[James Adams]

Rye House houses open cycle gas turbines (inefficient and higher carbon intensity hence last to be called onto the grid) commissioned in 1965 long before renewables were on the grid.

Such plants command high prices owing to be dormant for most of the year.

Nothing to do with wind or sun, but peaking plant using batteries is far cheaper, as the Australians have shown.

[Will Huges]

EDF had a Sunday Saver which encouraged you to reduce consumption between 16:00 & 19:00, and in return you received free energy on a Sunday. Of course they implemented like idiots and the targets got more difficult each month to the point that you couldn’t achieve the target.

Schemes like this ought to help if they are done properly.

I think that they’ve seen the error of their ways and are revising the scheme. Being such smart people they have suspended it for a month, just when it would be at its most useful.

Hopefully, in spring I will have loads of panels and a chunk of storage.